Immigration attorney Charles Kuck walked through 2025 approval-rate data compiled by Lawfully, a private immigration-analytics company, and the high-skill categories tell the story. H-1Bs still ran around 98%, and L-1s held near 89% to 92%. The employment-based extraordinary-ability and national-interest tracks are where the numbers collapsed.
mic What the Attorney Says
“They were being approved at a 70% rate in the first half of the year and a 46% rate in the second half of the year. This is the EB1A.”
The EB-2 national interest waiver fell further, from roughly 60% to about 36%, so a solid majority of NIW filings were being denied. O-1 petitions for extraordinary ability also slid nearly ten points in the back half of the year. Kuck’s read is that the rules did not change; the adjudicators did, looking at these cases with a “side eye,” alongside a flood of weak, self-filed petitions dragging the pooled rate down.
mic What the Attorney Says
“I have people come see me all the time because they’ve seen a Tik Tok by somebody purports to be a lawyer or an expert saying everybody gets approved.”
Everybody does not get an NIW, and the “guaranteed approval or your money back” pitch is exactly what Kuck warned against. His own firm’s near-100% rate, he said, comes from turning cases away rather than from a filing trick.
mic What the Attorney Says
“Because we don’t file garbage. We tell people honestly, you are not going to win this case.”
For anyone weighing an EB-1A or NIW now, the math has shifted: filing a marginal case no longer means a coin flip, and a denial brings you to the government’s attention. Build the record to the current, harder standard before filing. This is the same problem showing up in self-filed NIW denials under the Dhanasar framework, and a reason to weigh whether a disabled-child public-charge angle strengthens or weakens an NIW. For EB-1 filers from restricted countries, the litigation picture matters too, as in the EB-1C multi-plaintiff suit.